Checkmate: Short-Term Buyers Above $80,000 Drove Bitcoin Selling

In short

• On-chain analyst Checkmate says daily Bitcoin selling surged above $850m on 14 November, up from about $420m.
• More than 85% of that selling came from short-term holders who bought near $80,000.
• Long-term holders have largely stayed put and remain in profit, Checkmate added.
• Checkmate's Mean Reversion Index reads Q18, below his Q20 deep-value threshold.

On-chain analyst Checkmate said in an X post on 14 November 2026 that daily Bitcoin selling had climbed above $850m, having previously run at roughly $420m. He attributed more than 85% of it to short-term holders who bought near the recent peak above $80,000, adding that long-term holders were mostly still in profit and had not sold in size. At the time of writing (12:26 UTC on 14 November 2026), Bitcoin traded at $67,184, down 3.01% in 24 hours, with a market value of $1.35tn, according to InvestIn.News market data.

Who is selling the Bitcoin?

Short-term holders are entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, a threshold Checkmate uses to separate recent buyers from long-term holders. Because those buyers entered recently, their average cost basis sits close to the current spot price, which makes them sensitive to even modest declines. Long-term holders, by contrast, have held for 155 days or more and typically acquired Bitcoin at lower prices.

Why Checkmate calls this deep value

Checkmate said the latest decline marks the fourth capitulation sell-off after Bitcoin's all-time high. His Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which compares the price to long-term on-chain averages, read Q18 on 14 November, meaning it sat in the bottom 18% of its historical distribution. He said he considers any reading below Q20 to be deep value, so Q18 is below that threshold. Odaily and KuCoin reported the same Q18 reading.

How short-term holders shifted in October

Three weeks earlier, CryptoBriefing reported that short-term holders had, for the first time in 72 days, moved coins to exchanges at a loss. In the week to 27 October, just 16% of the coins they sent to exchanges were in profit, against 75% a week earlier, and Glassnode data put about 70% of short-term holder supply in profit, down from close to 100% in late September. That shift showed the same group moving from profit-taking to loss-selling before Checkmate's 14 November update.

What does it mean for Bitcoin buyers?

For ordinary holders, the split matters. TokenPost reported that a 15 Oct comparison found long-term holders with average unrealised gains of about 64% and short-term holders with about 9%, while their average cost bases were $49,300 and $74,400 respectively. That means buyers near $80,000 are sitting on small or negative margins, while longer-term holders have a much larger cushion. CryptoBriefing said a further slide in the share of short-term holder supply in profit from about 70% would leave more newer buyers underwater and could build selling pressure.

How traders reacted on X

• Peter Boehm (@pboehmnyc) said on X that the right move was to 'just DCA and wait it out'.
• Carson Coady (@carsoncoady15) said on X that the current levels seemed like a great opportunity.
• Bitcoin Dawg (@bitcoin_dawg) said on X that he loved deep value Bitcoin.
• Cale Weston (@CaleWeston12141) said on X that after six years he and many others no longer saw the same value and risk-adjusted return, with more money to be made elsewhere.
• Anthony Tarquinto (@tonytarquinto) asked on X at what price Checkmate was taking profits and how he was trading the lower lows.

Key numbers

Questions readers ask

What does Checkmate's Q18 reading mean?

Checkmate's Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index at Q18 means the index is in the bottom 18% of its historical distribution. Checkmate treats readings below Q20 as a deep-value zone, so Q18 sits below that threshold.

Why are short-term Bitcoin holders selling?

Short-term holders have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days and bought near $80,000. With Bitcoin around $67,184 on 14 November, many are selling at a loss or small profit, and Checkmate says they made up more than 85% of daily selling.

Are long-term Bitcoin holders still in profit?

TokenPost reported a 15 Oct comparison showing long-term holders with average unrealised gains of about 64% and an average cost basis of $49,300, while short-term holders had about 9% gains and a $74,400 cost basis.

Our view

At InvestIn.News, we think the 14 November selling illustrates a familiar weak-hands episode: buyers who entered near $80,000 are liquidating at a loss, while long-term holders with lower cost bases sit tight.

Checkmate's Q18 reading supports the idea that the market is in a deep-value zone, but that label is his model, not a guarantee. The shift CryptoBriefing described in late October, when short-term holders began realising losses, suggests this pressure has been building.

We will watch whether the share of short-term holder supply in profit stabilises around 70% or falls further; that will tell whether the weak hands are exhausted or still selling.

How we reported this: this story draws on reporting by tokenpost.com, cryptobriefing.com, KuCoin and Odaily, 6 public posts shown in the story and InvestIn.News market data. Each source is linked in the text and listed under Sources.

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Keshav Aggarwal