Mike McGlone says Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%

In short

• Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone said Bitcoin could fall to about $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%, according to CoinNess.
• McGlone has repeated the $10,000 call through 2026, with Bitcoin at $85,896 on 6 October, according to 247wallst.com.
• Bitcoin traded at $81,802 on 16 October 2026 at 13:55 UTC, up 2.37% in 24 hours, according to InvestIn.News market data.
• Two X users called the forecast consistent but hard to believe, with one asking if it meant $10,000 or a $10,000 drop.

Bitcoin could fall to about $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%, Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone said in a report around 15-16 October 2026, according to CoinNess. McGlone is a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, the research arm of the financial news and data company Bloomberg. He has repeated the same $10,000 target through 2026, according to 247wallst.com, which noted on 6 October that Bitcoin was trading at $86,189 that day and would need to fall 88% to reach $10,000.

The market backdrop is calmer than his warning suggests. Bitcoin traded at $81,802 on 16 October 2026 at 13:55 UTC, up 2.37% in 24 hours, and the total value of all crypto stood at $2.76tn, up 0.29%, according to InvestIn.News market data. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 63 of 100, in Greed territory, and Bitcoin dominance was 59.19%.

Why McGlone sees $10,000

McGlone's argument rests on the cost of safe money. He said the US five-year Treasury yield was about 4.90% as of 15 October, and that a year-end close above 4.98% would be the highest since 1999, according to CoinNess. When investors can earn that much without taking risk, he argues, volatile assets that pay no income, such as Bitcoin and gold, look less attractive. He also pointed to Bitcoin's 50-week moving average, a line that smooths a year of weekly prices, saying it is turning down in a pattern similar to 2022-2023.

A call he has repeated all year

This is not a new call. McGlone has reiterated the $10,000 forecast multiple times through 2026, according to 247wallst.com, and in September he wagered that Bitcoin would be below $77,000 in a year, according to CCN.com. In August, Yahoo Finance reported he saw Bitcoin's weakness below $69,000 as evidence that the market was reverting toward its pre-pandemic level near $10,000. Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 below his $69,000 line, dropping as low as $60,000 in February, yet buyers stepped in and lifted it back above $85,000 by October, according to 247wallst.com.

What would have to happen first

For ordinary holders, the practical question is what would have to happen first. 247wallst.com laid out a sequence: heavy redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs, funds that hold Bitcoin for their shareholders; selling by public companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets; and a shock across stocks, credit and crypto at the same time. Each step could trigger the next. Bitcoin has about 20.1 million coins in circulation against a maximum of 21 million, so a fall to $10,000 would cut its market value from $1.73tn to around $198bn, according to 247wallst.com.

Traders split on the $10,000 call

Traders watching the same charts are split. Bald Guy Money (@baldguymoney) said on X that he wanted to make sure he was reading the post correctly, asking whether it meant Bitcoin at $10,000 or a drop of $10,000. rocknet.eth (@rocknet_eth) said on X that McGlone has been predicting a reversion to $10,000 for a while, calling it delusional but consistent. McGlone himself said on X that a Bitcoin $10,000 reversion path could trigger tumbling dominoes, pointing to Bitcoin's peak above $100,000 in 2025, gold's rise above $5,000 in the first quarter and central banks shifting to restraint.

The prediction has a testable edge. McGlone has said Bitcoin staying above $75,000 could invalidate his call, and in August he treated comfort below $69,000 as a sign of further declines, according to 247wallst.com. On 6 October, Bitcoin stood 14.5% above his $75,000 line and 24.5% above his $69,000 line, the same report said. Whether the $10,000 scenario plays out depends on ETF flows and corporate holdings data, the two gauges 247wallst.com said would show if a selling cycle is starting.

Questions readers ask

What did Mike McGlone say about Bitcoin and US stocks?

Bloomberg senior analyst Mike McGlone said Bitcoin could fall to about $10,000 if US stocks drop 20%, according to CoinNess. He pointed to a US five-year Treasury yield of about 4.90% as of 15 October and a falling 50-week moving average for Bitcoin as signs the market's upswing may be ending.

Has Mike McGlone predicted $10,000 Bitcoin before?

Yes. McGlone has reiterated the $10,000 forecast multiple times through 2026, according to 247wallst.com, and in September he wagered Bitcoin would be below $77,000 in a year, according to CCN.com. Bitcoin was trading at $85,896 on 6 October, meaning it would need to fall 88% to reach $10,000.

What would have to happen for Bitcoin to reach $10,000?

247wallst.com described three steps: heavy redemptions from spot Bitcoin ETFs, selling by public companies that hold Bitcoin, and a shock across stocks, credit and crypto at once. Bitcoin has about 20.1 million coins in circulation, so a fall to $10,000 would cut its market value from $1.73tn to around $201bn.

Our view

Mike McGlone's $10,000 Bitcoin target is best read as a headline, not a forecast. He has repeated it through 2026, according to 247wallst.com, yet Bitcoin traded at $81,802 on 16 October, up 2.37% in 24 hours, and has recovered from a February low of $60,000. A call that survives every rebound without revision is not a scenario being tested; it is a position being marketed.

The mechanics he cites are real. A US five-year Treasury yield near 4.90% makes risk-free returns genuinely competitive, and Bitcoin's 50-week moving average has turned down before. But the $10,000 figure requires ETF redemptions, corporate selling and a cross-market shock to arrive together, a sequence 247wallst.com itself describes as conditional. The level to watch is his own $75,000 line: Bitcoin has stayed above it, and that, not the headline number, is what would settle the argument.

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— Keshav Aggarwal

What to watch: ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin holdings data will show whether a selling cycle is starting, according to 247wallst.com.