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US October CPI due tomorrow, futures put 9 December rate rise odds at about 77%

NewsFeeds update

GMX said US October CPI is due tomorrow at 8:30 Eastern time, with headline CPI expected up about 0.3% month on month and core up about 0.2%, and no year-on-year figure because of a 2025 government shutdown data gap. Futures put the odds of a rate rise on 9 December at about 77%.

MacroOdailyAINeutral

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The story so far: December Fed rate hike odds

Fed Governor Waller said he would back a 25bp December hike even if October CPI improves, and 50bp if core CPI is about 0.3% or more. Waller said the Fed needs to take back at least its last three precautionary cuts, but is not super hawkish and will not raise rates by 150 or 200bp.

Headlines only, oldest first. Open a headline for the full update and the outlet it came from.

  1. CME FedWatch puts December Fed hike odds at 86%

  2. CME FedWatch puts December rate rise odds at 72.8% before payrolls

  3. US October CPI and PPI in focus as rate-hike bets build

  4. Fed rate-hike odds for December rise to 77% on prediction market

  5. US October CPI due tomorrow, futures put 9 December rate rise odds at about 77%

  6. US October CPI due at 13:30 UTC without annual rates

  7. Waller says he will back a 25bp hike next month, 50bp if needed

  8. Markets fully price in 25 basis point Fed rate increase in December

  9. Waller says Fed needs to take back at least its last three precautionary cuts

  10. Waller says Fed is not super hawkish and will not raise rates 150 or 200bp

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Every update is a short rewrite, by AI in our own words, of a flash from the outlet named on it, credited and linked. Updates are joined into one story by AI; our editors can change a story’s name or take an update out. Not investment advice.