Reuters poll: all 100 economists expect December Fed rate hike

In short

• All 100 economists in Reuters' 16-20 October poll expect the Fed to raise interest rates in December.
• 94 of the 100 expect the Fed to hold its benchmark rate at 3.75%-4.00% on 27-28 October.
• 94 of 100 see rates at 4.00%-4.25% by year-end, while nearly 60% see that as the peak.
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has stayed quiet, while economists say inflation remains above the 2% target.

All 100 economists see a December hike

According to a poll report shared on X by Ricardo (@Rickz1022) and covered by MarketScreener and CoinNess, all 100 economists in a Reuters survey forecast a December increase in the Fed's benchmark rate. For the 27-28 October meeting, 94 of the 100 expect the federal funds rate to remain at 3.75%-4.00%, and 94 of 100 see a 4.00%-4.25% range by year-end. The survey took place from 16 to 20 October and was published on 20 October 2026.

How the consensus shifted

The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, sets the federal funds rate to steer borrowing costs and keep inflation near 2%. In September the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates by 25 basis points, a quarter of a percentage point, and less than half of economists in the previous Reuters poll expected another December hike. Now all 100 do, a sharp reversal, according to MarketScreener. The view had been building for days: Russell Investments' BeiChen Lin said in a 14 October report that the Fed may pause in October and raise again in December, with an inflation surprise able to change the odds, according to PANews.

Why inflation keeps the pressure on

Economists say inflation has run above the Fed's 2% target for nearly six years, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred gauge, expected to stay more than 100 basis points above target over coming quarters. The economy is strong too, growing at an annualised 2.2% pace in the second quarter and forecast to have expanded 3.2% in the third quarter, helped by AI investment, according to MarketScreener.

Higher costs for households and crypto traders

For households already paying more for fuel and imported goods, the survey suggests the central bank may keep its key rate near 4.00%-4.25% by year-end, according to MarketScreener. Rising costs, driven by energy prices above $100 and new tariffs, are a key political vulnerability for Republicans before the midterm elections. In crypto markets, traders had priced only a 12% chance of an October hike, and Bitcoin rebounded above $82,000 on 19 October as those odds fell, according to Odaily.

Economists say the Fed is behind

Several economists in the poll said the Federal Reserve is moving too slowly. Alex Pelle, senior US economist at Mizuho Securities, said a strong economy plus inflation makes a hike 'the easiest choice', but the Fed is 'treading water and perhaps even getting a little behind'. Pelle added that not going in October is 'the wrong call' and said the risk is greater that the Fed goes 50 basis points in December than not at all, according to MarketScreener. Michael Gapen, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said risks around the economy and inflation are tilted to the upside, so the Fed may need to hike more than expected. On X, Ricardo (@Rickz1022) posted the survey results and said the consensus has shifted sharply toward tighter policy.

Not every forecaster sees just one more rise. Nearly 60% of those polled expect the policy rate to peak in a 4.00%-4.25% range, but 38 of 92 predict at least two further increases, up from roughly one-fifth in September, according to MarketScreener. Before the December meeting, Fed officials will receive two more jobs reports and another consumer price index reading, and Prestige Economics president Jason Schenker said the Fed may consider a larger 50 basis point rise after pausing in October, according to PANews.

The first test is the 27-28 October meeting, which starts days before the November midterm elections. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has avoided giving guidance on the path, and the Fed's quiet period begins on 24 October, according to PANews. Economists in the poll expect inflation to stay above target until at least 2028, so the December meeting will land against a backdrop of persistent price pressure.

Questions readers ask

Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in December 2026?

All 100 economists in a 16-20 October Reuters poll expect the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate in December, but a survey is not a Fed decision. 94 of the 100 see rates at 4.00%-4.25% by year-end, according to MarketScreener and CoinNess.

What did the Reuters poll say about the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting?

94 of the 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Federal Reserve to hold its federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00% at its 27-28 October meeting, days before the US midterm elections, according to the poll report.

Why do economists expect a December Fed rate hike?

Inflation has been above the Federal Reserve's 2% target for nearly six years, and the US economy has stayed strong, helped by AI investment. Alex Pelle of Mizuho Securities called a December hike 'the easiest choice', while Michael Gapen of Morgan Stanley said risks are tilted to the upside.

Our view

At InvestIn.News, we think a December Fed rate hike is likely to happen, and that it is the right direction if Chair Kevin Warsh is serious about bringing inflation under control.

The inflation problem is real. The Fed's preferred gauge has been above its 2% target for nearly six years, and oil prices remain above $100 because of the war with Iran. A central bank that skips an October move but then raises in December is still moving slowly, and we see that patience as a risk.

The poll's shift is telling: fewer than half of economists expected a December hike last month, and now all 100 do. That does not make a hike certain, since a survey is not Fed policy, but the consensus has moved sharply tighter.

The development we would watch to confirm this view is the next CPI and jobs reports before the December meeting. If those data stay hot, the Fed may need to move by more than 25 basis points.

Follow the latest Macro updates as they happen on Macro NewsFeeds.

— Keshav Aggarwal

What to watch: The Federal Reserve's 27-28 October meeting comes first, followed by two jobs reports and another CPI reading before December.