Kalshi traders price XRP above $1.70 at about one in three
Kalshi's September XRP market shows a $1.70 forecast, but the contract itself trades at 32 cents with XRP near $1.55 and five days left.
Key points
- Kalshi's above $1.70 XRP contract fell to 32 cents from 36 cents in 24 hours, implying roughly a one-in-three chance.
- XRP has already settled Kalshi's $1.40, $1.50 and $1.60 strikes this month, the last on Sept. 22.
- XRP needs a gain of about 9.8% from $1.55 to reach $1.70 by 11:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30.
- Kalshi's 2026 market lifted the odds of XRP topping $2.00 to 59% from 53%.
- US spot XRP ETFs took in $22.65 million on Sept. 25, led by Bitwise, according to the report.
Kalshi's September XRP market is showing a $1.70 forecast, but the contract traders actually buy tells a cooler story, Bitcoin.com News reports. The above $1.70 contract last changed hands at 32 cents, down from 36 cents a day earlier, and each contract pays $1 if XRP gets there.
That 32 cent price works out to roughly a one in three chance of XRP clearing the level before the market settles on Sept. 30. About 46,650 contracts have traded on the strike since the market opened on Sept. 1, with roughly 10,870 still open. Higher up the ladder, the $1.80 line sits at 19 cents, while the $2.00 and $2.10 lines each trade near 7 cents.
XRP has already done a good share of climbing this month. Kalshi's $1.40 strike settled yes on Sept. 3, the $1.50 strike was crossed on Sept. 21 and the $1.60 strike on Sept. 22. The run started from a hole, though, as XRP slid to roughly $1.26 in mid-September and the below $1.30 contract in Kalshi's companion low-price market paid out on Sept. 15. XRP then tagged $1.64 on Sept. 23, its best print of the month, before sliding back toward $1.50.
September contract cools
At $1.55 early Saturday, XRP needs to gain about 9.8% to reach $1.70 before 11:59 p.m. ET on Sept. 30. That kind of move is not unusual for the token, which ran from $1.41 to $1.61 across Sept. 21 and Sept. 22. The finish line has a catch: Kalshi settles on CF Benchmarks' XRP reference rate, a per-minute average that strips out the top and bottom 20% of prices, so a one-minute wick on a single exchange will not count.
The backdrop is not doing XRP many favours either. Bitcoin's price is stuck near $84,000 after stalling below $87,000 this week, and XRP's pullbacks have tracked bitcoin's. Traders are also watching the $157 million in XRP stolen in the Bitget hack, which sits in wallets nobody can freeze. Bitcoin.com News recently reported that XRP's average long-term trader is still down 11.75% on a 365-day basis, according to Santiment, even after the push above $1.60.
While September odds cooled, Kalshi's full-year XRP market warmed up. The contract on XRP topping $2.00 in 2026 rose to 59 cents from 53 cents a day earlier, the $2.50 line climbed to 33 cents from 26 cents and $3.00 moved to 24 cents from 19 cents. Bitcoin.com News says it saw the same split in Kalshi's bitcoin markets earlier this week, when year-end $100,000 odds rose as September's $90,000 odds slipped.
Strikes already settled
Fund flows have given the bulls some cover. US spot XRP exchange-traded funds took in $22.65 million on Sept. 25, led by Bitwise, according to the report. That is steady buying, but it has not been enough to push XRP back above $1.60, leaving the next week or so crucial for the September contract.