Bitcoin's Uptober record examined as October 2026 opens higher
U.Today looks at October's history for Bitcoin after 2025 broke a seven-year run of gains, and notes the market enters this October with more momentum.
Key points
- Bitcoin rose from about $119,000 at the start of October 2025 to a record above $126,000 before falling toward $105,000 and ending the month down about 4%.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $4.7 billion in the first half of October 2025 before a U.S.-China trade dispute triggered a sharp risk-off move.
- Bitcoin ended October higher in ten of the thirteen years from 2013 to 2025, with an average return of about 19%, according to U.Today.
- Bitcoin gained about 9% in September and recently hit an eight-month high above $87,000, after rising roughly 25% in August.
- Solana, XRP, NEAR, LINK and Zcash posted significant September gains, and Ethereum also broke higher after its August rally.
Bitcoin's Uptober record is under review as October 2026 begins, with U.Today analysing the history of what it calls the most bullish month for crypto. The outlet notes that October has been exceptionally strong for Bitcoin over the long run, but that 2025 showed the pattern is not guaranteed.
In October 2025, Bitcoin started the month at about $119,000 and initially followed the seasonal script, setting a record above $126,000. Strong demand for exchange-traded funds supported the move, with U.S. spot Bitcoin funds pulling in about $4.7 billion during the first half of the month, according to U.Today.
The setup then broke down. A fresh trade dispute between the United States and China sparked a violent risk-off move, which included the largest cryptocurrency liquidation event on record at the time. After seven years of positive October returns, Bitcoin fell toward $105,000 and finished the month down about 4%. Broader altcoin benchmarks fared much worse, while Ethereum lost roughly 6% to 7%.
October 2025 breaks the streak
Over the longer history, October has still been unusually kind to Bitcoin. U.Today reports that in ten of the thirteen years between 2013 and 2025, Bitcoin ended October higher, with an average return of about 19%. That record is the basis for the Uptober label that traders use each year.
October 2026 therefore starts from a different position than the previous year. Bitcoin has already gained roughly 9% in September and recently reached an eight-month high above $87,000, after rising about 25% in August. ETF inflows have increased, and short covering plus better liquidity have sped up the transition, U.Today says.
Altcoins have led the way, with assets such as Solana, XRP, NEAR, LINK and Zcash already posting significant September gains. Ethereum has also broken higher following its August rally, according to the outlet.
A long record of gains
U.Today argues this creates both opportunity and risk. The market carries more momentum into October than it did a few months ago, but a significant increase in optimism has already been priced in. A continued move higher is plausible if ETF demand stays positive and macro conditions do not deteriorate, yet another straight-line acceleration would leave the market more vulnerable to leverage-driven corrections. The outlet's key takeaway from 2025 is that seasonality can support an established trend but cannot offset a major macro shock.