Arthur Hayes says AI model firms are worthless and a bailout would lift Bitcoin

Key points

• Hayes told host Luke Martin on 16 Oct that AI model companies are "worthless" and survive on an implicit US government backstop.
• Hayes expects a bailout to lift Bitcoin, which traded near $81,400 on 17 Oct.

Arthur Hayes says AI model companies are worthless and that a government bailout of the sector would send Bitcoin higher. The BitMEX co-founder made the argument on the Convergence podcast with host Luke Martin on 16 Oct, according to Bitcoin.com News.

Hayes said firms such as OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX raise debt and equity while benefiting from an implicit US government backstop, which lets them keep spending. He argued that none of them makes money and that the larger the AI bubble grows, the larger the bailout will be, and the higher Bitcoin goes. In his framing, Bitcoin is the receipt showing that money is being wasted.

He made the case in a heavy week for technology stocks. The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.5% on 16 Oct, and chip stocks posted their longest losing streak since 2008, while Bank of America analysts warned the $1tn AI investment boom could follow a classic boom-and-bust cycle.

Hayes also said the market had moved on from Michael Saylor, and criticised token launches for leaving retail buyers who bought at the TGE holding losses of as much as 95%. Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on 17 Oct, after more than $100bn left the crypto market in the five days to Friday while US stocks shed $1.6tn.

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