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Kalshi and Polymarket traders favour Democrats in key US midterm races

Prediction markets price a 75% chance of a Democratic sweep of Congress as voters go to the polls, with nearly $1.9bn in election contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Why it matters: Congressional control shapes the path for crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act, and traders are pricing the outcome in races where industry PACs have spent millions.

InvestIn.News NewsDesk · 1 min read
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Picture from Cointelegraph for: Kalshi and Polymarket traders favour Democrats in key US midterm races
Image: Cointelegraph
Original reporting: Isabelle Castro, Cointelegraph

Key points

  • Kalshi and Polymarket priced a Democratic sweep at 75% and 75.5% respectively as of 4:30 p.m. UTC, according to Cointelegraph.
  • Defend American Jobs, part of the Fairshake network, spent $36.9m backing Senator Jon Husted and $19.7m opposing Sherrod Brown in Ohio, where traders still favour Brown.
  • Polymarket conditional markets implied a 35% chance of a US recession by the end of 2027 under a Democratic sweep, against 19% without one.

Prediction market traders on Kalshi and Polymarket favour Democrats in the US midterm elections, with a Democratic sweep of Congress priced at 75% and 75.5% respectively as of 4:30 p.m. UTC, Cointelegraph reports. The two platforms gave Democrats a 93% and 94.5% chance of taking the House, and 75% and 75.5% of winning the Senate.

Nearly $1.9bn in election-related contracts had traded across the two platforms as of Monday, a record for a midterm cycle, according to an analysis by The Washington Post cited by the outlet.

For crypto, the Ohio Senate race has drawn heavy spending. Defend American Jobs, part of the Fairshake super PAC network, put 54% of its total expenses into the state, spending $36.9m for Senator Jon Husted and $19.7m against the crypto critic Sherrod Brown.

What to watch: Voters go to the polls in the US midterm elections on Tuesday, with the results to settle the races the markets have priced.

Read the full story on Cointelegraph

Live updates on NewsFeeds:RegulationDesk editor: Keshav Aggarwal (accountable for this page; this summary was not edited by hand)

How this was produced: an AI model wrote this summary of Cointelegraph’s report, which we credit and link above. Read our Editorial and AI policy. Spotted a mistake? See Corrections.

Not investment advice. Read the risk disclaimer.

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