Kalshi and Polymarket crypto contracts hit record $2.7bn weekly volume

In short

• Weekly notional crypto contract volume on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $2.7 billion, Bloomberg reported on 24 October 2026.
• Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contracts sometimes exceeded $1 million in volume each, and run 96 times a day.
• Kalshi's year-end Bitcoin contract did $42 million and Polymarket's about $78 million, BlockBeats and ChainCatcher reported.
• Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini and Kraken are applying for licences or partnering with prediction markets as spot volumes fall.

Kalshi and Polymarket's record week

Weekly notional trading volume in cryptocurrency-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7bn last week, according to a Bloomberg newsletter reviewed by InvestIn.News. The record was reported on 24 October 2026, with short-dated Bitcoin bets doing most of the work. Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin price contracts at times exceeded $1m each in notional volume, and year-end Bitcoin contracts also grew.

Kalshi and Polymarket are prediction markets where people buy and sell event contracts, each of which pays out a fixed amount if a specific outcome happens. Instead of buying Bitcoin, a trader can bet on whether Bitcoin will rise or fall by the end of a 15-minute window. Notional volume counts each contract at its full face value, usually $1, rather than the cash traders actually put up. At the time of writing (11:55 UTC on 24 October 2026), Bitcoin traded at $80,537, down 1.34% in 24 hours, with a market value of $1.62tn. Total crypto market value stood at $2.69tn, down 2.53% in 24 hours, according to InvestIn.News market data.

Why did 15-minute Bitcoin bets dominate?

Short-term contracts, most of them on whether Bitcoin would rise or fall in minutes, did the heavy lifting, BlockBeats and ChainCatcher reported. Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contract sometimes exceeded $1m in notional volume, and some traders used bots to trade in the final seconds before expiry. Longer-dated contracts also rose: Kalshi's year-end Bitcoin price contract recorded $42m in volume, while Polymarket's comparable year-end Bitcoin contract reached about $78m, according to ChainCatcher. Crypto has become the second-largest contract category on both platforms after sports.

Which exchanges are entering prediction markets?

Exchanges are moving in. Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini and Kraken are applying for licences or partnering with prediction markets, according to ChainCatcher and Odaily. Coinbase's product already uses Kalshi's infrastructure, Koin Bülteni reported. The push comes as spot trading volumes on centralised exchanges decline, pushing crypto platforms to diversify, BlockBeats noted. For ordinary crypto users, the exchanges' moves bring short-dated Bitcoin bets into the same apps they already use for spot trading.

What are traders saying about the $2.7 billion?

On X, posters asked how far the record reflects genuine take-up. i_am_nyakundi.pi (@eMRight2) wrote that the $2.7bn is notional, with Kalshi opening 15-minute Bitcoin contracts 96 times daily. KELEN (@kzz_web3) argued that brief contracts can recycle the same money repeatedly, so headline turnover on its own gives a misleading view of take-up. TEB (@tebrabbit) wrote that it was striking for crypto to be nearing sports in volume, while Crypto Panda (@cryptopandx) said people prefer wagering on Bitcoin to owning it. Humayun (@humayun_x) wrote that trading venues now offer crypto wagers because buyers have dried up, calling it a 'perfect ouroboros'.

US legal fights over sports contracts

The next step is legal and regulatory, and it centres on sports contracts. Multiple US states have raised legal challenges against sports prediction contracts, according to ChainCatcher and Odaily. Bloomberg noted that the legal disputes and regulatory uncertainty facing sports contracts may affect the prediction market industry's development, BlockBeats reported. That leaves crypto prediction contracts exposed to the same legal questions.

Questions readers ask

What is Kalshi and Polymarket's record crypto volume?

Weekly notional trading volume in crypto-related event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion last week, according to a Bloomberg newsletter reviewed by InvestIn.News. Notional volume counts each contract at its full face value, not the cash traders put up.

Why are short-dated Bitcoin contracts driving prediction market volume?

Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin contracts run 96 times a day and have at times exceeded $1 million in notional volume each. Short-duration contracts can turn over the same capital many times, which inflates notional volume relative to actual new money.

Which exchanges are entering crypto prediction markets?

Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini and Kraken are applying for licences or partnering with prediction markets, according to ChainCatcher. Coinbase's product already uses Kalshi's infrastructure, Koin Bülteni reported.

Is the $2.7 billion crypto prediction market volume a reliable adoption measure?

Not necessarily. Notional volume counts each contract at full face value, and short-dated contracts can recycle the same capital many times. A more reliable measure would compare unique funded traders, net fees and repeat use after incentives.

Our view

At InvestIn.News, we think this record is less a sign of broad crypto adoption than a sign of how easy short-dated prediction contracts make it to gamble on price moves instead of investing in them. It has become very easy to put money into a 15-minute Bitcoin contract compared with investing for the long term.

The mechanics support that reading. A 15-minute contract runs 96 times a day, so notional volume can turn the same capital over many times. The record may say more about the frequency of bets than about new money coming into crypto.

We would treat the $2.7 billion figure with caution until platforms report unique funded traders, net fees and repeat use after incentives. The number that would change our view is how much of this growth comes from new users rather than existing traders shifting venues.

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Keshav Aggarwal

What to watch: Regulatory rulings in U.S. states challenging sports prediction contracts are awaited to see how they affect crypto contracts.