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UNIParadis said on X that the FOMC voted 10 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged.
OdailyThe story so far: Fed October rate decision
The FOMC held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Chair Warsh said inflation is 'too high' and credit has tightened somewhat, while calling the labour market healthy. Warsh now says rates have turned lower and he is watching a rise in oil futures.
US ADP jobs and PCE data due as rate-hike bets hinge on readings
US September ADP employment data is due at 20:15, expected to show 70,000 new jobs, followed at 20:30 by August PCE, with core annual rate seen at 3.3%. Fed's Williams signaled dovishness, cutting October hike odds to even.
Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in October rise to 59%
Polymarket odds that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged in October rose to 59%, up 28% in 24 hours, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike fell to 42%, down 27%, per PPP. US September ADP jobs data and August PCE are due.
US September ADP employment at 90,000, versus 70,000 expected
US ADP employment for September came in at 90,000, against an expected 70,000 and a prior reading of 38,000, according to Jinshi.
Traders boost Fed rate hike bets after US data
US short-term interest rate futures rose after the release of US economic data, and traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, the report said.
FedWatch: 52.9% odds Fed holds rates in October after PCE data
CME FedWatch shows a 52.9% probability the Fed keeps rates unchanged through October and 47.1% for a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, odds are 10% for no change, 51.8% for a 25bp hike and 38.2% for a 50bp hike.
Market odds for October Fed decision after cooler PCE inflation
Following cooling PCE inflation, market expectations for the October Fed decision stand at 62.9% for no change and 37.1% for a 25 basis point rate hike.
Market traders cut bets on a Fed rate hike in October
Market traders have reduced their wagers on a Federal Reserve rate increase in October, according to Jinshi.
Market no longer fully pricing in a full rate hike this year, report says
Swap contracts tied to Federal Reserve meeting dates show the market is no longer fully pricing in a full rate hike this year, according to a report citing Jinshi.
Spartan Capital's Cardillo: Fed likely to hold rates steady in October
Spartan Capital Securities chief market economist Peter Cardillo said nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations but still show a growing labour market, with no wage inflation pressure. He said the report is favourable for markets and, with softer PCE data, suggests the Fed…
Fed October hike odds fall to 17% as jobs data cools
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders put the probability of the Fed holding rates in October at 83%, up from 72% before the employment report, with hike odds dropping to 17% from 28%. Fed funds futures now price about 22.2 basis points of cumulative hikes through end-2026…
Weak US labour market lowers odds of two Fed rate hikes, LPL economist says
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said broad weakness in the US labour market, as shown in the nonfarm payrolls report, reduces the likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice. He also noted diverging trends between goods-producing sectors benefiting…
Fed policy decisions may fuel crypto market volatility in October
October US economic data and Federal Reserve policy decisions could increase volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, according to CryptoPotato. September FOMC minutes are due 7 Oct, CPI 14 Oct, PPI 15 Oct, and the FOMC rate decision 28 Oct.
Huatai Securities sees Fed unlikely to hike again in October, expects December move
Huatai Securities said a weaker September nonfarm payrolls report reduces the urgency for consecutive Fed rate hikes, with the three-month average of 51,000 new jobs near equilibrium. It expects no October hike and a December increase as its base case.
CME FedWatch: 77.9% odds Fed holds rates in October
CME FedWatch data puts the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October at 77.9%, with a 22.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, the odds of no change are 14.8%, a 25 bps hike 67.3% and a 50 bps hike 17.9%.
CME FedWatch: 77.9% odds Fed holds rates through October
CME FedWatch data cited by PANews put the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October at 77.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point hike at 22.1%. Through December, unchanged odds are 11.4%, a 25bp hike 62.3%, a 50bp hike 24.3% and a 75bp hike 2.1%.
CME FedWatch: 77.3% odds Fed holds rates in October
CME FedWatch data puts the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October at 77.3%, with a 22.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, the odds of no change are 13.4%, versus 67.8% for a 25bp hike and 18.8% for 50bp.
Fed officials signal October pause as CPI tests rate expectations
Fed meeting minutes and several officials signalled that inflation remains elevated and one more rate rise is possible this year, though October may not bring immediate action. Trump ruled out military action against Iran before the midterm elections.
Traders put 84% odds on Fed holding rates in October
Data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in October rose to 84%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike fell to 17%. Trading volume on the related prediction event has reached $32m.
Fed quiet period begins as bond traders await CPI and Warsh remarks
US bond traders are watching the latest CPI data and comments from Fed Chair Warsh for signals on how fast the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates. Markets expect a hold at the late-October meeting, a 25-basis-point hike in December and two more by the end of 2027, with the Fed's quiet period starting Saturday before the two-day meeting ends on 28 October.
Russell Investments' BeiChen Lin says Fed may pause in October and act again in December
Russell Investments senior investment strategist BeiChen Lin said in a report that the Federal Reserve may pause rate rises at its October meeting but is expected to raise rates again in December. He said an inflation surprise above expectations could make markets reassess the odds of an October hike and the terminal rate.
Market raises bets on Fed October rate rise after US inflation data
After US inflation figures were published, markets increased wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in October and that it will raise them three more times by the end of 2027. US September CPI and core CPI both rose more than expected year on year.
CITIC Securities says it still expects a Fed hike in December after a October hold
CITIC Securities said US September CPI beat expectations with another hot core reading, so it still expects one more Fed hike this year: no move in October, then a 25bps increase in December. It said financial conditions are unlikely to ease meaningfully.
Warsh says global conditions broadly in line with expectations since September FOMC
Federal Reserve chair Warsh said global conditions have largely matched the Fed's expectations since its September FOMC meeting, and that judgements will be made at the October and December meetings.
Bitunix says Bitcoin upside may stay limited even if the Fed holds rates
Bitunix says Bitcoin's upside may stay limited even if the Federal Reserve holds rates at next week's meeting. It cites a Reuters survey in which 94 of 100 economists expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%.
CoinShares says Bitcoin resilient but Fed rate-hike risk persists
CoinShares says weaker US housing data gives the Fed room to hold rates at its 28 October meeting, but hot CPI and PPI readings keep the risk of a hike alive. It says Bitcoin has held up this week on recovering spot demand and short covering, though rate expectations and liquidity will still drive the market.
Account buys $360,000 of Fed-hold bet on Polymarket, PPP says
PPP, a prediction-market tool, says an account that has lost more than $30,000 bought $360,000 of the Polymarket contract that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October, at an average price of 85.5 cents across 377,658.3 shares.
Markets put Fed October rate-hike odds below 15% despite inflation surge
Traders are pricing less than a 15% chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase in October, even after an inflation surge, as markets bet on a pause.
Macro
BloomingbitAIBullish
Warsh's signalling in focus as Fed expected to hold rates, Santander's Stanley says
With the Fed expected to hold rates this week, chair Kevin Warsh must explain why officials are not hiking while keeping investors confident on inflation, Santander's Stephen Stanley says. Stanley expects no change but a second hike of the year in December.
Fed expected to hold rates as Warsh faces communication test
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting this week, though recent inflation and economic data still support further hikes. Chair Kevin Warsh's explanation for the pause, and whether he hints at a December rise, will draw market attention.
Fed FOMC to announce rate decision at 02:00 UTC Thursday
The Federal Open Market Committee began its meeting at 21:30 UTC on Tuesday and will release its rate decision at 02:00 UTC on Thursday. The market widely expects rates to be held at 3.75%-4.00%.
Mike McGlone says FOMC meeting will set Bitcoin's direction
Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at 18:30 UTC will determine Bitcoin's direction, and warned traders not to fight the Fed when trading assets closely correlated with US stocks.
Warsh's inflation and jobs read seen as key for December rate path
Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold in October, with attention on how Warsh reads inflation, employment and financial conditions and whether he leaves room for a December rate rise. A hawkish tone would signal further tightening; more focus on slowing jobs could lower expectations.
TD Securities says worsening inflation could raise odds of a 50 basis point Fed hike
Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its meeting, but worsening inflation could force it to tighten more in coming months, CNBC analysis cited by Jinshi says. TD Securities says a 50 basis point hike at a later meeting could be priced in if inflation data stay high or the labour market remains strong.
Macro
ChainCatcherAIBearish
Fed meeting weighs sticky inflation against pace of rate rises
The Federal Reserve's meeting pits high September CPI and PPI readings, and rates that may not yet be restrictive enough, against calls to space out further hikes. Hawks say markets already expect a December rise, while doves see limited risk in waiting six weeks.
Macro
Fed approves rate decision in 10-2 FOMC vote
The Federal Reserve's FOMC approved its interest rate decision by 10 votes to 2, compared with a unanimous 12-0 vote at the previous meeting.
Fed upper rate bound stays at 4% on 28 October
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for 28 October left the upper bound at 4%, in line with a 4.00% forecast and unchanged from the previous 4.00%.
Cook and Hammack dissented in favour of a rate rise, Fed says
The Federal Reserve said Cook and Hammack dissented against holding rates steady and favoured an increase, while domestic spending remains resilient despite high uncertainty, Paradis said on X.
Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4.00% as Cook and Hammack favour a hike
The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote, with governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack favouring a 25 basis point hike. The statement said activity is expanding strongly and inflation remains elevated; chair Warsh holds a press conference at 18:30 UTC.
Warsh says inflation still too high and Fed ready to act if needed
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high and signalled the central bank is ready to act if needed.
Macro
Warsh says inflation is too high and credit has tightened somewhat
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh praised strong growth and a healthy labour market but said inflation is 'too high' and the Fed is not satisfied with its progress against it. He said credit conditions have tightened somewhat since the last hike but would not call them 'restrictive'.
Warsh says US unemployment is below a year ago and job growth has quickened
Fed Chair Warsh says the US unemployment rate is lower than a year earlier and employment growth is clearly faster than last year, with the four-week average of jobless claims still near multi-decade lows. He calls conditions fairly good for the Fed's employment mandate.
Macro
Warsh says rates have turned lower and flags rising oil futures
Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh said interest rates have turned lower and that he is watching a rise in oil futures. He said rates affect almost everything and have influenced the tech sector since early September, playing an important role in the technology investment boom.
PANews
Cryptoindia
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