CITIC Securities said US September CPI beat expectations with another hot core reading, so it still expects one more Fed hike this year: no move in October, then a 25bps increase in December. It said financial conditions are unlikely to ease meaningfully.
CITIC Securities says it still expects a Fed hike in December after a October hold
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OdailyThe story so far: Fed October rate decision odds
Markets expected a hold at the late-October meeting and a December hike. After hot September CPI, bets rose on an October rise. Bitunix now says Bitcoin upside may stay limited even if the Fed holds, citing a Reuters survey where 94 of 100 economists expect a hold.
US ADP jobs and PCE data due as rate-hike bets hinge on readings
US September ADP employment data is due at 20:15, expected to show 70,000 new jobs, followed at 20:30 by August PCE, with core annual rate seen at 3.3%. Fed's Williams signaled dovishness, cutting October hike odds to even.
Polymarket odds of Fed holding rates in October rise to 59%
Polymarket odds that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged in October rose to 59%, up 28% in 24 hours, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike fell to 42%, down 27%, per PPP. US September ADP jobs data and August PCE are due.
US September ADP employment at 90,000, versus 70,000 expected
US ADP employment for September came in at 90,000, against an expected 70,000 and a prior reading of 38,000, according to Jinshi.
Traders boost Fed rate hike bets after US data
US short-term interest rate futures rose after the release of US economic data, and traders increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike, the report said.
FedWatch: 52.9% odds Fed holds rates in October after PCE data
CME FedWatch shows a 52.9% probability the Fed keeps rates unchanged through October and 47.1% for a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, odds are 10% for no change, 51.8% for a 25bp hike and 38.2% for a 50bp hike.
Market odds for October Fed decision after cooler PCE inflation
Following cooling PCE inflation, market expectations for the October Fed decision stand at 62.9% for no change and 37.1% for a 25 basis point rate hike.
Market traders cut bets on a Fed rate hike in October
Market traders have reduced their wagers on a Federal Reserve rate increase in October, according to Jinshi.
Market no longer fully pricing in a full rate hike this year, report says
Swap contracts tied to Federal Reserve meeting dates show the market is no longer fully pricing in a full rate hike this year, according to a report citing Jinshi.
Spartan Capital's Cardillo: Fed likely to hold rates steady in October
Spartan Capital Securities chief market economist Peter Cardillo said nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations but still show a growing labour market, with no wage inflation pressure. He said the report is favourable for markets and, with softer PCE data, suggests the Fed…
Fed October hike odds fall to 17% as jobs data cools
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders put the probability of the Fed holding rates in October at 83%, up from 72% before the employment report, with hike odds dropping to 17% from 28%. Fed funds futures now price about 22.2 basis points of cumulative hikes through end-2026…
Weak US labour market lowers odds of two Fed rate hikes, LPL economist says
LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said broad weakness in the US labour market, as shown in the nonfarm payrolls report, reduces the likelihood the Federal Reserve will raise rates twice. He also noted diverging trends between goods-producing sectors benefiting…
Fed policy decisions may fuel crypto market volatility in October
October US economic data and Federal Reserve policy decisions could increase volatility in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, according to CryptoPotato. September FOMC minutes are due 7 Oct, CPI 14 Oct, PPI 15 Oct, and the FOMC rate decision 28 Oct.
Huatai Securities sees Fed unlikely to hike again in October, expects December move
Huatai Securities said a weaker September nonfarm payrolls report reduces the urgency for consecutive Fed rate hikes, with the three-month average of 51,000 new jobs near equilibrium. It expects no October hike and a December increase as its base case.
CME FedWatch: 77.9% odds Fed holds rates in October
CME FedWatch data puts the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October at 77.9%, with a 22.1% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, the odds of no change are 14.8%, a 25 bps hike 67.3% and a 50 bps hike 17.9%.
CME FedWatch: 77.9% odds Fed holds rates through October
CME FedWatch data cited by PANews put the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October at 77.9%, with a cumulative 25 basis point hike at 22.1%. Through December, unchanged odds are 11.4%, a 25bp hike 62.3%, a 50bp hike 24.3% and a 75bp hike 2.1%.
CME FedWatch: 77.3% odds Fed holds rates in October
CME FedWatch data puts the probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in October at 77.3%, with a 22.7% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike. For December, the odds of no change are 13.4%, versus 67.8% for a 25bp hike and 18.8% for 50bp.
Fed officials signal October pause as CPI tests rate expectations
Fed meeting minutes and several officials signalled that inflation remains elevated and one more rate rise is possible this year, though October may not bring immediate action. Trump ruled out military action against Iran before the midterm elections.
Traders put 84% odds on Fed holding rates in October
Data shows the probability of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady in October rose to 84%, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike fell to 17%. Trading volume on the related prediction event has reached $32m.
Fed quiet period begins as bond traders await CPI and Warsh remarks
US bond traders are watching the latest CPI data and comments from Fed Chair Warsh for signals on how fast the Federal Reserve will keep raising rates. Markets expect a hold at the late-October meeting, a 25-basis-point hike in December and two more by the end of 2027, with the Fed's quiet period starting Saturday before the two-day meeting ends on 28 October.
Russell Investments' BeiChen Lin says Fed may pause in October and act again in December
Russell Investments senior investment strategist BeiChen Lin said in a report that the Federal Reserve may pause rate rises at its October meeting but is expected to raise rates again in December. He said an inflation surprise above expectations could make markets reassess the odds of an October hike and the terminal rate.
Market raises bets on Fed October rate rise after US inflation data
After US inflation figures were published, markets increased wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in October and that it will raise them three more times by the end of 2027. US September CPI and core CPI both rose more than expected year on year.
CITIC Securities says it still expects a Fed hike in December after a October hold
CITIC Securities said US September CPI beat expectations with another hot core reading, so it still expects one more Fed hike this year: no move in October, then a 25bps increase in December. It said financial conditions are unlikely to ease meaningfully.
Warsh says global conditions broadly in line with expectations since September FOMC
Federal Reserve chair Warsh said global conditions have largely matched the Fed's expectations since its September FOMC meeting, and that judgements will be made at the October and December meetings.
Bitunix says Bitcoin upside may stay limited even if the Fed holds rates
Bitunix says Bitcoin's upside may stay limited even if the Federal Reserve holds rates at next week's meeting. It cites a Reuters survey in which 94 of 100 economists expect the benchmark rate to stay at 3.75% to 4.00%.
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