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AI summary of a third-party reportBearishNewsDesk

Lula wins Brazil runoff as prediction markets that favoured Bolsonaro are proved wrong

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.78% of the vote, defying prediction platforms that gave Senator Flavio Bolsonaro 80% odds of victory.

Why it matters: Prediction markets had been credited with beating pollsters in the first round, and their miss on Brazil's runoff tests how much weight traders put on their odds.

InvestIn.News NewsDesk · 1 min read
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Picture from Bitcoin.com News for: Lula wins Brazil runoff as prediction markets that favoured Bolsonaro are proved wrong
Image: Bitcoin.com News
Original reporting: Sergio Goschenko, Bitcoin.com News

Key points

  • Lula took 64,248,884 votes (51.78%) to Bolsonaro's 59,822,138 (48.22%) with 99.99% counted
  • Polymarket gave Bolsonaro 80% odds at 12 p.m. on Sunday, before the count reversed the picture
  • A perpetual contract tied to the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell over 22% on Hyperliquid after the result

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won Brazil's runoff election, according to Bitcoin.com News, securing a fourth term as president after trailing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round. With 99.99% of votes counted, Lula took 51.78%, or 64,248,884 votes, against 59,822,138 (48.22%) for Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

The result overturned the first round, when Lula registered 45.16% with 53.9 million votes and Bolsonaro 47.03% with more than 56 million. Prediction markets, which are banned in Brazil, had given Bolsonaro a clear edge after that first-round win. On Polymarket on Sunday, Bolsonaro held 80% odds at 12 p.m., but the odds flipped by 6 p.m. as results began to be published and Lula gained in key areas.

The platforms had outperformed traditional pollsters in the first round, but this time they were wrong.

Markets had risen on expectations that Bolsonaro would bring fiscal reforms.

Read the full story on Bitcoin.com News

Live updates on NewsFeeds:MacroDesk editor: Keshav Aggarwal (accountable for this page; this summary was not edited by hand)

How this was produced: an AI model wrote this summary of Bitcoin.com News’s report, which we credit and link above. Read our Editorial and AI policy. Spotted a mistake? See Corrections.

Not investment advice. Read the risk disclaimer.

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