Prediction markets price year-end targets for ethereum, solana and zcash
Polymarket and Kalshi traders put millions behind price targets for ethereum, solana and zcash, but the two venues settle contracts in very different ways.
Key points
- Polymarket traders price a 69% to 70% chance ethereum touches $3,000, with about $16.12 million in volume on that event.
- Solana's $140 target carries 60% odds on roughly $2.08 million in cumulative volume, while $200 sits at 12%.
- Zcash's $2,000 target stands at 41% odds, yet Kalshi prices a 73% chance ZEC finishes 2026 above $1,000 on just $3,679 traded.
- On Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, ethereum traded near $2,689, solana around $121.16 and zcash near $1,543.
- The six Polymarket and Kalshi events examined account for about $31.22 million in cumulative trading volume.
Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing year-end outcomes for ethereum, solana and zcash, with millions of dollars riding on whether the three assets reach specific price levels before New Year's Day. According to Bitcoin.com News, the contracts split into two kinds: bets that a coin briefly touches a target, and bets on where it actually finishes the year.
On Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026, ethereum traded around $2,689, solana about $121.16 and zcash near $1,543. Polymarket traders assigned a 69% to 70% implied probability to ethereum touching $3,000, a gain of roughly 11.6% from that reference price. The ethereum event carried about $16.12 million in accumulated volume, the largest pool among the three assets examined.
Higher ethereum targets thin out quickly. The $3,500 contract carries 36% odds, $4,000 sits at 17%, $5,000 at 6% and $10,000 at just 1%. On the downside, traders price a fall to $2,250 at 35% and to $2,000 at 15%. Kalshi's ethereum year-end market shows about $12.17 million in volume and a forecast price of $2,720, with 14% odds of a close between $2,500 and $2,749.99.
Markets split on targets
Solana's $140 target draws 60% odds on Polymarket, with $160 at 32%, $180 at 19% and $200 at 12%. The market has about $2.08 million in cumulative volume, and even the $600 contract, at 1% odds, has attracted $154,564 in trading activity. Downside contracts price a drop to $90 at 26% and to $80 at 18%. Kalshi's solana market, by contrast, shows a $128.90 forecast and 71% odds of finishing at $100 or higher, but on only $182,704 in total volume.
Zcash offers the sharpest contradiction. Having already cleared the $1,400 and $1,500 milestones, its $2,000 target carries 41% odds, requiring a gain of about 29.6%. Traders also price a retreat to $700 at 34% and to $500 at 22%. Kalshi's $1,000-or-higher contract displays 73% odds, though that market has recorded just $3,679 in volume and shows a wide quoted spread, making the figure a snapshot rather than a definitive measure of expectations.
The gap between the two venues comes down to settlement rules. Polymarket uses Binance one-minute candles, so an upside contract resolves Yes once a qualifying candle records a high at or above the target, and the price need not hold. Kalshi's year-end contracts rely on CF Benchmarks real-time indexes, averaging 60 consecutive one-second observations before midnight Eastern on Jan. 1, 2027.
Ethereum leads volumes
Across the six Polymarket and Kalshi events examined, cumulative trading volume reached about $31.22 million. As Bitcoin.com News notes, the next three months will decide which contracts pay out, but the settlement rules leave an open question: traders can collect on a price being reached even if the asset later gives back the entire advance.