Bitcoin's case as an investment gets weaker if the US 10-year Treasury yield climbs to around 5% while stock valuations stay high. That is the view of Mike McGlone, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, reported by CoinNess.

The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest the US government pays to borrow money for ten years. It sets the price of money across markets. When it rises, safer assets pay more, so riskier ones have to work harder to compete.

The level McGlone flags is not far off. The 10-year yield briefly reached about 5.2% this week, the highest since before the 2008 financial crisis, according to Bloomberg reporting cited by PANews. The 30-year yield went above 5.5%, a level last seen in 2004, Odaily and PANews reported.

The 5% line

Bitcoin traded near $84,000 as the bond selloff ran, CryptoSlate reported. It had come close to $87,000 before slipping about 1% to roughly $83,600, with analysts pointing to a $1.56bn options expiry on Deribit, according to Odaily. Traders cut $1.7 billion in leverage, CryptoSlate said.

McGlone's comparison is simple. Both the 10-year yield and bitcoin's price sit about ten times higher than in 2021, he said. In other words, the return on cash-like government debt has caught up with the asset that was sold as a hedge against loose money.

That matters for anyone holding bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier. For years the pitch was that near-zero yields made bitcoin the only game in town. At 5%, a government bond pays you to wait, with no volatility and no custody risk.

Inflation eats the yield

Not everyone reads it that way. One voice on X, Serenity, argued that a 5% yield is not the bargain it looks like once inflation is counted, pointing to Subway sandwiches going from about $5 to about $20 after tax over 12 years, roughly 12% a year, as reported by Odaily. The suggestion was to hedge everyday inflation with equity assets.

The inflation data gives that argument some support. The final September reading of one-year inflation expectations was 4.6%, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 48.1 against an expected 47.6, Odaily and PANews reported. A 5% yield minus 4.6% expected inflation leaves very little.

The bond market itself is unsettled. A gauge of US Treasury volatility posted its biggest gain in more than a year as yields hit multi-decade highs, PANews reported. UK 10-year yields reached about 5.38%, a 30-year high, and France's 10-year rose to about 4.68%, according to Bloomberg via PANews.

What to watch

Crypto is not trading as one block. XRP rose 4.37% and Solana 3.36% over 24 hours while bitcoin fell, Odaily reported. Spot bitcoin ETFs, funds that trade like shares, still drew $299.09m. One analyst even chose to measure XRP against gold rather than bitcoin or the dollar, according to CryptoPotato, though the outlet gave no further detail.

For investors, the question is what a 5% yield does to the demand that has propped up bitcoin this year. ETF inflows have been steady, but they are small next to the sums that can move between Treasuries and risk assets when the yield gap shifts.

Watch the 10-year yield around 5%, and whether stock valuations stay high if it holds there. Watch Treasury volatility, which has been the trigger for sharp moves across markets. And watch whether ETF inflows keep running while yields sit at these levels. That combination, not any single print, decides whether McGlone's call holds.

Follow the latest ETFs updates as they happen on ETFs NewsFeeds.

Sources

• CoinNess: Bloomberg analyst says 5% U.S. 10-year yield could curb bitcoin's appeal (2026-09-26)
• PANews: UK and US government bond yields climb well above pre-crisis levels (2026-09-26)
• CryptoSlate: Bitcoin holds near $84,000 as traders cut $1.7 billion in leverage (2026-09-25)
• Odaily: Bitcoin slips to about $83,600 as $1.56bn options expiry curbs rally; XRP and SOL gain (2026-09-25)
• Odaily: Serenity says Treasury yields lag inflation, suggests equities as hedge (2026-09-25)
• Odaily: US 30-year Treasury yield breaks above 5.5%, a new high since 2004 (2026-09-25)
• PANews: US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.5%, highest since 2004 (2026-09-25)
• PANews: US Treasury volatility gauge posts biggest gain in over a year as yields hit multi-decade highs (2026-09-25)

This article was drafted with AI assistance from the reporting listed above, then checked and edited by our writer.