Bitcoin's next cycle may not end in the violent spike that marked 2013 and 2017. Benson Sun, a crypto influencer and former FTX community partner, said this cycle could instead bring gradual gains and successive record highs, according to CoinNess. He argued that institutional buyers may keep funding rates and the MVRV Z-Score from reaching the extremes that have historically signalled a blow-off top.

That view matters because the shape of a cycle determines how investors behave. A blow-off top rewards selling into euphoria and punishes late buyers. A grinding climb rewards patience but offers fewer obvious exit signals. If Sun is right, the usual playbook of waiting for a vertical move and a sharp reversal may not work this time.

Other analysts are not so sure the top is far away. Michael Terpin predicted bitcoin will break through $120,000 before the 2028 halving, most likely in the fourth quarter of 2027, according to CoinDesk. That is a longer horizon than most cycle calls, and it implies the current advance still has room to run.

A different cycle shape

On-chain data offers some support for the gradualist case. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said the 30-day to 365-day adjusted MVRV ratio crossed above its 365-day average on August 20, when bitcoin traded at $71,255, and rose above 1.0 on September 20 at $80,691, according to Odaily. The ratio is now 1.018 with bitcoin at $84,156, the sixth such signal.

Profit-taking is also far below the levels seen at past peaks. Bitfinex data cited in a report shows recent holders realised about $2.4 billion in profit, against $7 billion to $10 billion a day at previous market tops, according to Odaily. US spot bitcoin ETFs drew $2.84 billion in net inflows over six sessions, and about 410,000 ETH left exchanges in the same period.

Not every analyst is looking at bitcoin alone. One analyst focused on XRP's performance against gold rather than bitcoin or the US dollar, according to CryptoPotato, which did not give further details. That framing suggests some traders are hunting for relative-value trades rather than betting on the direction of the largest crypto asset.

On-chain signals

The bearish counterpoint is that bottoms are called too early. Analyst Killa said on X that bitcoin's bottom has likely appeared, with the bull cycle's largest correction seen at about 10% to 15% up to $126,000, according to PANews. He said $87,000 could mark a bottom if a local high forms there, and that he would only consider shorting near $90,000.

In a separate post, Killa said he would add long positions if prices hold the key $80,000 area and would only consider shorting near $90,000, according to Odaily. Those levels are close to current prices, which shows how narrow the margin for error has become for traders trying to time the next move.

For investors, the practical question is whether to treat strength as a reason to trim or to hold. Sun's argument implies that funding rates and valuation metrics will stay cooler than in past cycles, because institutions buy steadily rather than chasing leverage. If that holds, the usual warning signs may arrive later and less dramatically.

What to watch

The risk is that institutional flows can reverse as quickly as they arrive. ETF inflows of $2.84 billion over six sessions are a sign of demand, but they are also a concentrated source of selling if sentiment turns. A gradual climb can become a gradual decline, and the absence of a blow-off top does not rule out a deep drawdown.

What to watch next is whether the MVRV ratio keeps rising above 1.0 and whether realised profits stay below past peak levels. If both continue, the gradual-climb thesis gains credibility. If funding rates spike or profit-taking accelerates toward the $7 billion to $10 billion range, the blow-off top may simply be delayed rather than cancelled.

For now, the analysts agree on little beyond the idea that this cycle looks different. Sun sees a long grind, Terpin sees a six-figure price before 2028, and Killa sees a bottom already in place. Investors should treat each as a scenario, not a forecast, and watch the data rather than the narrative.