Polymarket odds of next Fable model by end of October fall to 38%

The story so far: Polymarket odds on next Fable model

Polymarket odds that Anthropic releases the next Fable model by Oct. 24 rose to 65% on Oct. 12, then to 88% on Oct. 14. By Oct. 23, odds of a Fable 5.2 or higher public release by end of October had fallen to 38%, a 30% drop in 24 hours.

1. 12 Oct 202606:31 UTC

   Polymarket odds of next Fable model by 24 October rise to 65%

   PPP says Polymarket odds that the next Fable model launches by 24 October rose to 65%, up 13% in 24 hours. The market resolves Yes if Anthropic releases Fable 5.2 or higher to the public by the deadline.

   AIOdailyAINeutral

2. 14 Oct 202603:58 UTC

   Polymarket odds of next Fable model by 17 October rise to 70%

   PPP monitoring shows Polymarket's odds that Anthropic releases a Fable 5.2 or higher model by 17 October rose to 70%, up 36% in 24 hours. The market settles on Anthropic's official announcements; closed tests do not count.

   AIOdailyAINeutral

3. 14 Oct 202613:04 UTC

   Polymarket odds of next Fable model by 24 Oct rise to 88%

   Polymarket traders put the probability that the next Fable model launches by 24 October at 88%, up 36% in 24 hours, per PPP. The market settles yes if Anthropic releases Fable 5.2 or higher publicly by that date.

   AIOdailyAINeutral

4. 23 Oct 202604:55 UTC

   Polymarket odds of next Fable model by end of October fall to 38%

   Polymarket's probability that Anthropic releases a model named Fable, version 5.2 or higher, to the public by the end of October has fallen to 38%, a 30% drop in 24 hours. The market settles Yes only if such a model is actually opened to public use, with beta or waitlist access counting and closed testing not.

   AIOdailyAINeutral