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UNIPolymarket puts Democratic midterm sweep at 62%, threatening CLARITY Act
Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of taking both chambers of Congress on 3 November, a result that could stall the CLARITY Act and reshape US crypto rules.
Key points
- Polymarket's Balance of Power market puts a Democratic sweep at 62%, with Kalshi at 61% and about $35.9m traded there.
- The Senate rejected a procedural motion on the CLARITY Act on 15 September 2026 by 49-50, 11 votes short of the 60 needed.
Prediction markets now favour a Democratic sweep of Congress, a result that could stall the CLARITY Act and reshape US cryptocurrency regulation. On 10 October, Polymarket's Balance of Power market gave Democrats a 62% probability of capturing both the House and Senate, with more than $21.2m in trading volume at press time, according to Bitcoin.com News. Kalshi's competing market put the odds at 61%, with roughly $35.9m traded.
The chamber markets show a wider gap in the House than the Senate. Polymarket gives Democrats a 91% chance of controlling the House and projects a 234-201 Democratic majority, while its Senate market puts Democrats at 63% against Republicans' 38%, with about $6.23m traded. Kalshi's Senate market, which has drawn $57.3m in volume, has Democrats at 61% and Republicans at 39%.
CLARITY Act setback
The CLARITY Act, formally the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, passed the House in July 2025 by a bipartisan 294-134 vote. It would give the CFTC primary oversight of qualifying digital commodities while the SEC keeps authority over securities-related activity. The Senate rejected a procedural motion on 15 September 2026 by 49-50, 11 votes short of the 60 required, after Democrats sought stronger ethics and illicit-finance safeguards.
With the session winding down, the bill's prospects have collapsed, and any successor would need fresh consideration when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027. Bitcoin.com News lists ten possible consequences of a Democratic sweep, including new committee leadership, tougher DeFi compliance and tighter stablecoin reward rules. Trump would remain president, so legislation would still need his signature.
Live updates on NewsFeeds:RegulationDesk editor: Keshav Aggarwal (accountable for this page; this summary was not edited by hand)
How this was produced: an AI model wrote this summary of Bitcoin.com News’s report, which we credit and link above. Read our Editorial and AI policy. Spotted a mistake? See Corrections.
Not investment advice. Read the risk disclaimer.