Bitcoin drawdown analysis points to $74,500 if losses deepen
A CryptoQuant contributor says Bitcoin's recent pullback nearly matched the 2022-2025 cycle's average drawdown, putting a $74,500 level in focus if selling continues.
Why it matters: The analysis offers a historical framework for judging how deep Bitcoin's current correction could go, a question facing holders as selling continues.
Key points
- Average drawdowns across five cycles ranged from 7.58% in 2022-2025 to 21.71% in 2011-2013, giving an overall average of 14.39%.
- Contributor MAC_D proposed buying around $80,000 and larger purchases between $74,000 and $75,000.
A Bitcoin drawdown analysis published by CryptoQuant on 9 Oct has put a $74,500 level in focus if the current correction deepens, Bitcoin.com News reports. Contributor MAC_D compared declines during past bull markets, periods of broadly rising prices, to judge how far the latest retreat might run.
That is close to the 7.58% average drawdown of the 2022-2025 cycle. Applying a 14.39% historical benchmark to the 5 Oct high produces the $74,500 reference, which the contributor said could serve as a guide if losses continue.
The analysis noted that individual events produced much deeper corrections, and pointed to Fidelity Digital Assets' May 2024 work on moderating volatility.
The article also cites CryptoQuant's Bull Score rising from 30 to 80 in August, a fifth historical bull market signal identified by contributor Darkfost on 24 Sept, and founder Ki Young Ju's 22 Sept suggestion that growing institutional ownership could mean smaller cycle gains and shallower losses.
Live updates on NewsFeeds:BitcoinDesk editor: Keshav Aggarwal (accountable for this page; this summary was not edited by hand)
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