Bitcoin slips below $83,000 but heads for best third quarter since 2017
Bitcoin fell to one-week lows near $82,500 as US-Iran tensions hit risk assets, yet it remains up over 40% for the quarter ahead of key US inflation and jobs data.
Key points
- BTC/USD closed the week at $84,450, its highest weekly close since late January, before dropping to $82,557.
- Bitcoin is up just over 40% in Q3, its best third-quarter performance since 2017 and well above the 8.6% average since 2013.
- Markets price a 70.3% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in October, up from 57.7% a week earlier.
- August PCE inflation is expected at 3.6% year-on-year, with September nonfarm payrolls forecast at 83,000 jobs.
- Analyst Rekt Capital says holding $82,500 is needed to confirm an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal.
Bitcoin is trading below $83,000 after a volatile start to the week, but the largest cryptocurrency is still heading for its strongest third quarter in nine years. According to CoinTelegraph, BTC/USD fell to one-week lows of $82,557 after Sunday's weekly close, as crypto joined US stock-market futures in declining on the potential for fresh US strikes on Iran.
The weekly close itself was stronger. At $84,450, it was Bitcoin's highest weekly close since late January, per TradingView data cited by the outlet. On lower time frames, bands of liquidity added to and then removed from exchange order books created an artificial barrier to further gains. On Monday, about $30 million in ask liquidity clustered near $85,700, according to CoinGlass, and spot price accelerated its decline once that appeared.
Two significant candle closes fall in the coming week. Wednesday brings both the September monthly close and the Q3 quarterly close. Above the current spot price sit the 2026 yearly open at $88,700 and the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF investors near $86,000. Below lie the cost basis for corporate Bitcoin treasuries at $80,500 and the True Market Mean, the aggregate cost basis for active investors, near $76,700.
Quarterly gains hold above 40%
CoinTelegraph reports that BTC/USD remains up by just over 40% this quarter, its best Q3 since 2017. That compares with an average Q3 return of just 8.6% since 2013, while Q4 returns have averaged 77% over the same period, according to CoinGlass. Recent buyers who acquired Bitcoin one to four weeks ago remain in aggregate profit, with a cost basis of $78,300, per CryptoQuant.
Macro data dominates the calendar. The August Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due on Wednesday and is expected at 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. After the Fed raised rates by 0.25% in September, CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows majority odds of another 0.25% hike in October, with the probability rising from 57.7% a week ago to 70.3% on Monday.
Oil and geopolitics are feeding that sensitivity. Over the weekend, US president Donald Trump rejected Iran's latest ceasefire proposal and declined to rule out further military action. WTI crude returned to $95 per barrel, gaining 3% on Monday. Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics told Reuters that although greater flows through the Strait of Hormuz were easing some upward pressure, the oil market remains in deficit.
Fed bets firm before data
Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report offers another volatility trigger. August payrolls came in far above expectations at 162,000 jobs, boosting hawkish Fed bets, while estimates see 83,000 jobs added last month. On price structure, analyst Rekt Capital is watching an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart and says Bitcoin must hold $82,500 as support to confirm the reversal and build a reaccumulation range above it. A failure there, he warns, could send price back into the $60,000 to $80,000 range.