KBW analyst puts 75% odds on crypto cycle having turned
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Stephen Glagola sees a 75% chance the digital asset cycle has turned, as bitcoin trades well above its June low and the firm resumes Coinbase coverage.
Key points
- KBW analyst Stephen Glagola assigns a 75% probability to a turn in the crypto cycle, using bitcoin as a proxy for the wider market.
- Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a June 30 closing low, about 8.8 months after the peak, versus roughly 12 months on average for the previous three bear markets.
- Bitcoin closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, up about 44% from its June 30 close near $58,500, and slipped to about $83,100 on Sept. 28.
- KBW resumed Coinbase coverage with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target, against a $195.11 market price cited in the report.
- Glagola sees weaker stock markets and renewed Federal Reserve tightening as risks to the outlook.
A Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst has put a 75% probability on the crypto cycle having turned, according to a Sept. 28 report that accompanied the firm's resumption of coverage of Coinbase. Stephen Glagola used bitcoin as a proxy for the wider digital asset market and wrote that the firm assigns that probability to the turn. The figure reflects his assessment of the cycle rather than a forecast of bitcoin's next price.
The call rests on how the current decline compares with earlier ones. Bitcoin fell 53% from its October 2025 peak to a closing low on June 30, the report estimates. That low came about 8.8 months after the peak, while the previous three bear markets took roughly 12 months on average and fell about 82% from peak to trough.
Glagola also cautioned that earlier bear markets included rallies of more than 30% that later failed, leaving room for another reversal in the current recovery. He found that onchain indicators have yet to show the deep capitulation seen near previous bottoms. Bitcoin.com News reports that the comparison relies on an observed pattern of prolonged declines following major advances.
Analyst puts odds at 75%
The rebound has carried bitcoin well above its summer lows. It closed near $84,400 on Sept. 26, up about 44% from its June 30 close near $58,500, and slipped to about $83,100 on Sept. 28, down roughly 1.6% from the previous session. The recovery has still included pullbacks, which the report treats as relevant to claims that the cycle has changed.
Other observers read the same question differently. A Sept. 24 holder cost-basis analysis identified a crossover its author called confirmation of a bull market, while Fidelity's Sept. 1 crypto market outlook said the low could already have occurred but also raised the possibility of a fresh decline later this year. Fidelity noted that bitcoin's changing market structure could make the timing of earlier four-year cycles less reliable.
The market view forms part of Glagola's case for Coinbase stock. KBW resumed coverage with an Outperform rating and a $237 price target, compared with the $195.11 market price cited in its report. He expects stronger crypto trading activity to lift earnings, while stablecoin revenue, derivatives and prediction markets could broaden the exchange beyond spot trades.
Bitcoin recovery and pullbacks
Coinbase reported a record 10.3% share of crypto trading volume in the second quarter, up from 9.1% in the first, and average USDC holdings of $20 billion across its products. Glagola estimates 2027 adjusted EBITDA will exceed consensus by 24%, assuming a moderate trading recovery. Chief executive Brian Armstrong separately said in a Sept. 10 interview that he believed bitcoin had reached a cycle low.