# Checkmate: Short-Term Buyers Above $80,000 Drove Bitcoin Selling Published: 2026-11-14 Author: Keshav Aggarwal Produced: drafted with AI help from the sources it names, then checked and edited by Keshav Aggarwal. URL: https://investin.news/originals/bitcoin-short-term-holders-selling-checkmate In short - On-chain analyst Checkmate says daily Bitcoin selling surged above $850m on 14 November, up from about $420m. - More than 85% of that selling came from short-term holders who bought near $80,000. - Long-term holders have largely stayed put and remain in profit, Checkmate added. - Checkmate's Mean Reversion Index reads Q18, below his Q20 deep-value threshold. On-chain analyst Checkmate said in an X post on 14 November 2026 that daily Bitcoin selling had climbed above $850m, having previously run at roughly $420m. He attributed more than 85% of it to short-term holders who bought near the recent peak above $80,000, adding that long-term holders were mostly still in profit and had not sold in size. At the time of writing (12:26 UTC on 14 November 2026), Bitcoin traded at $67,184, down 3.01% in 24 hours, with a market value of $1.35tn, according to InvestIn.News market data . > A snapshot of what I am seeing during this Bitcoin sell-off. First, my Mean Reversion Index is trading at a Q18 meaing the bottom 18% of the distribution. I consider anything under a Q20 to be the deep value zone. pic.twitter.com/IGnjyLio3Y (_Checkmate 馃煚馃攽鈿♀槩锔忦煕笍 @_Checkmatey_ 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) ### Who is selling the Bitcoin? Short-term holders are entities that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days, a threshold Checkmate uses to separate recent buyers from long-term holders. Because those buyers entered recently, their average cost basis sits close to the current spot price, which makes them sensitive to even modest declines. Long-term holders, by contrast, have held for 155 days or more and typically acquired Bitcoin at lower prices. ### Why Checkmate calls this deep value Checkmate said the latest decline marks the fourth capitulation sell-off after Bitcoin's all-time high. His Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which compares the price to long-term on-chain averages, read Q18 on 14 November, meaning it sat in the bottom 18% of its historical distribution. He said he considers any reading below Q20 to be deep value, so Q18 is below that threshold. Odaily and KuCoin reported the same Q18 reading. ### How short-term holders shifted in October Three weeks earlier, CryptoBriefing reported that short-term holders had, for the first time in 72 days, moved coins to exchanges at a loss. In the week to 27 October, just 16% of the coins they sent to exchanges were in profit, against 75% a week earlier, and Glassnode data put about 70% of short-term holder supply in profit, down from close to 100% in late September. That shift showed the same group moving from profit-taking to loss-selling before Checkmate's 14 November update. ### What does it mean for Bitcoin buyers? For ordinary holders, the split matters. TokenPost reported that a 15 Oct comparison found long-term holders with average unrealised gains of about 64% and short-term holders with about 9%, while their average cost bases were $49,300 and $74,400 respectively. That means buyers near $80,000 are sitting on small or negative margins, while longer-term holders have a much larger cushion. CryptoBriefing said a further slide in the share of short-term holder supply in profit from about 70% would leave more newer buyers underwater and could build selling pressure. ### How traders reacted on X - Peter Boehm (@pboehmnyc) said on X that the right move was to 'just DCA and wait it out'. - Carson Coady (@carsoncoady15) said on X that the current levels seemed like a great opportunity. - Bitcoin Dawg (@bitcoin_dawg) said on X that he loved deep value Bitcoin. - Cale Weston (@CaleWeston12141) said on X that after six years he and many others no longer saw the same value and risk-adjusted return, with more money to be made elsewhere. - Anthony Tarquinto (@tonytarquinto) asked on X at what price Checkmate was taking profits and how he was trading the lower lows. > Just DCA and wait it out. Thanks for your great work as always :) (Peter Boehm @pboehmnyc 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) > Seems like a great opportunity. @LynAldenContact pic.twitter.com/g3PaoH06KQ (Carson Coady @carsoncoady15 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) > I 馃А deep value Bitcoin (Bitcoin Dawg @bitcoin_dawg 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) > The issue is after 6 years i and many others no longer see the same value and risk adjusted return/CAGR. More money to be made elsewhere. (Cale Weston @CaleWeston12141 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) > at what price/points are you taking profits and how are you trading the lower lows? (Anthony Tarquinto @tonytarquinto 路 14 Nov 2026 路 View on X) ### Key numbers | What | Figure | | Daily Bitcoin selling volume | more than $850m, up from about $420m | | Share of selling from short-term holders | more than 85% | | Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index | Q18, bottom 18% of distribution | | Long-term vs short-term cost basis | $49,300 vs $74,400 | | Long-term holder average unrealised gain | about 64% | | Short-term holder average unrealised gain | about 9% | ### Questions readers ask #### What does Checkmate's Q18 reading mean? Checkmate's Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index at Q18 means the index is in the bottom 18% of its historical distribution. Checkmate treats readings below Q20 as a deep-value zone, so Q18 sits below that threshold. #### Why are short-term Bitcoin holders selling? Short-term holders have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days and bought near $80,000. With Bitcoin around $67,184 on 14 November, many are selling at a loss or small profit, and Checkmate says they made up more than 85% of daily selling. #### Are long-term Bitcoin holders still in profit? TokenPost reported a 15 Oct comparison showing long-term holders with average unrealised gains of about 64% and an average cost basis of $49,300, while short-term holders had about 9% gains and a $74,400 cost basis. ### Our view At InvestIn.News , we think the 14 November selling illustrates a familiar weak-hands episode: buyers who entered near $80,000 are liquidating at a loss, while long-term holders with lower cost bases sit tight. Checkmate's Q18 reading supports the idea that the market is in a deep-value zone, but that label is his model, not a guarantee. The shift CryptoBriefing described in late October, when short-term holders began realising losses, suggests this pressure has been building. We will watch whether the share of short-term holder supply in profit stabilises around 70% or falls further; that will tell whether the weak hands are exhausted or still selling. How we reported this: this story draws on reporting by tokenpost.com, cryptobriefing.com, KuCoin and Odaily, 6 public posts shown in the story and InvestIn.News market data . Each source is linked in the text and listed under Sources. Sources: - tokenpost.com: Bitcoin Selling Tops $850 Million as Recent Buyers Lead Daily Sales | TokenPost (https://www.tokenpost.com/news/investing/57270) - Crypto Briefing: Bitcoin short-term holders sell at loss for first time in 72 days (https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-short-term-holders-sell-at-loss) - KuCoin: Bitcoin in Deep Value Zone as Long-Term Holders Avoid Major Selling | KuCoin (https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/bitcoin-in-deep-value-zone-as-long-term-holders-avoid-major-selling?lang=en_US&x=fr_FR) - Odaily: Checkmate says Bitcoin mean-reversion index sits deep in value zone as long-term holders stay put (https://www.odaily.news/en/newsflash/534512) - Peter Boehm (@pboehmnyc): Post (https://x.com/pboehmnyc/status/2121485719289946569) - Carson Coady (@carsoncoady15): Post (https://x.com/carsoncoady15/status/2121566944239538187) - Bitcoin Dawg (@bitcoin_dawg): Post (https://x.com/bitcoin_dawg/status/2121483495528968525) - Cale Weston (@CaleWeston12141): Post (https://x.com/CaleWeston12141/status/2121499752147915107) - Anthony Tarquinto (@tonytarquinto): Post (https://x.com/tonytarquinto/status/2121498421337231860) - _Checkmate 馃煚馃攽鈿♀槩锔忦煕笍 (@_Checkmatey_): Post (https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/2121483176036229282) - Phemex: Bitcoin Deep Value Zone: Long-Term Holders Not Fleeing Amid | Phemex News (https://phemex.com/ja/news/article/bitcoin-sits-in-deep-value-zone-as-longterm-holders-resist-selling-amid-capitulationstyle-pullback-103536) - InvestIn.News market data (https://investin.news/markets)